The stocks we saw first.
Over 324 closed MegaTrends positions, the average winning trade ran +83% while the average loser was capped at -29%. 27 wins of 100% or more. Every entry, every exit, every consumer-data signal that flagged the move months before Wall Street caught on. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Biggest win · closed
+611%
HOMEAt Home Group
May 2020 → July 2021 · 14 months
Biggest 2025 win
+557%
HOODRobinhood Markets
April 2024 → September 2025 · 18 months
Most recent · 2026
+227%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices
June 2025 → May 2026 · 11 months
Just closed in PRO.
Fresh exits from our active model portfolios — pulled live from the platform. Updates within minutes of a position closing.
Closed
PL
+10%
May 2026 → Jun 2026 · 20 days
$40.74 → $44.74
Closed
RDW
+104%
May 2026 · 13 days
$11.46 → $23.36
Closed
RCLRoyal Caribbean
+360%
Mar 2023 → May 2026 · ~38 months
$61.75 → $284.19
Closed
GOOGL
+15%
Apr 2026 → May 2026 · 9 days
$344.45 → $394.80
The greatest hits.
Five wins everyone remembers — each called on consumer-data signals months before earnings revealed the move. They're the marquee names off a deeper bench: 27 closed positions of 100%+ and 149 winning trades overall. Keep scrolling for the rest.
Curated · 5 of 149 winning trades
- HOMEAt Home Group
Closed
+611%
May 2020 → Jul 2021 · ~14 months
Entry$3.24 May 2020
→
Close$23.43 Jul 2021
“Pandemic nesting surge in consumer-search data 4 months before management raised guidance. Home-improvement spend spiked across our brand maps while Wall Street kept rate-cycle assumptions intact.”
How it played out
- May 2020: Position opened — search volume +180% YoY
- Aug 2020: First earnings beat. Stock +120%
- Apr 2021: Take-private rumored. Stock +480%
- Jul 2021: Closed at $23.43 — +611.35%
- HOODRobinhood Markets
Closed
+556%
Apr 2024 → Sep 2025 · ~18 months
Entry$13.71 Apr 2024
→
Close$90.04 Sep 2025
“Retail-trading mentions doubled while sentiment flipped positive — pre-earnings. Our app-install share data showed HOOD pulling ahead of legacy brokerages during the 2024 retail wave.”
How it played out
- Apr 2024: Position opened — mention volume +112% MoM
- Aug 2024: Q2 print beats consensus by 22%. +89%
- Feb 2025: Crypto trading volume inflection. +280%
- Sep 2025: Closed at $90.04 — +556.63%
- AMDAdvanced Micro Devices
Closed
+227%
Jun 2025 → May 2026 · ~11 months
Entry$126.40 Jun 2025
→
Close$413.11 May 2026
“Consumer + B2B mention velocity for AMD enterprise AI accelerators surged vs NVDA mid-2025. Our brand-map data caught the design-win cadence pivot before any sell-side analyst flagged the share shift.”
How it played out
- Jun 2025: Position opened at $126.40 — AI accelerator share inflection
- Aug 2025: MI300 design-win cadence accelerates. +60%
- Feb 2026: Hyperscaler reorder data shows AMD share gains. +180%
- May 2026: Closed at $413.11 — +226.83%
- COINCoinbase Global
Closed
+445%
May 2023 → Nov 2024 · ~18 months
Entry$46.20 May 2023
→
Close$251.79 Nov 2024
“App-install share surging vs Robinhood as crypto-regulation clarity priced in. Our consumer-survey data showed conversion intent doubling among 25-34 cohort six months pre-ETF.”
How it played out
- May 2023: Position opened — BTC bottom thesis
- Jan 2024: BTC ETF approval. +210%
- Oct 2024: Election clarity. +380%
- Nov 2024: Closed at $251.79 — +444.96%
- NVDANvidia
Closed
+257%
Sep 2022 → Nov 2023 · <14 months
Entry$13.30 Sep 2022
→
Close$47.50 Nov 2023
“Enterprise AI mentions tripled six months before the H100 supply shock. We tracked the shift from 'crypto miner' to 'AI accelerator' in our B2B data before any sell-side analyst flagged it.”
How it played out
- Sep 2022: Position opened — 'AI training' mention spike
- Feb 2023: ChatGPT moment. +60%
- May 2023: Q1 guide blowout. +160%
- Nov 2023: Closed at $47.50 — +257.14%
Plenty more where those came from. 22 more closed positions ran 100%+. Walk the full bench below.
The math behind the receipts
The asymmetry is the edge.
Across 206 closed MegaTrends positions, we win a little more than half the time. Where the edge lives: our winners run nearly 3x the size of our losers.
- 51% Win rate
We win about half the time. - +83% Average winning trade
When we win, we win big. - -29% Average losing trade
When we lose, we lose small.
“Winners running nearly 3x the size of losers — that's the edge consumer-behavior data buys you.”
Every ticker that doubled— or better.
27 closed MegaTrends positions gained 100% or more — across 23 tickers. Best closed gain per ticker shown.
HOME
Closed
+611.3%
May 2020 → Jul 2021
14 mo hold
HOOD
Closed
+556.6%
Apr 2024 → Sep 2025
18 mo hold
COIN
Closed
+445.0%
May 2023 → Nov 2024
18 mo hold
RCL
Closed
+360.2%
Mar 2023 → May 2026
38 mo hold
NVDA
Closed
+257.1%
Sep 2022 → Nov 2023
14 mo hold
AMD
Closed
+226.8%
Jun 2025 → May 2026
11 mo hold
13 winners still open.
The Swans hold these right now. Eight of them are running over +159% on the entry. Tickers blurred — PRO subscribers see entry, current, and target on every position.